"People's Daily" on the economy: the situation correctly grasp the focus of control

Entered 2008, the international and domestic situation has many new and complicated factors, both economic and social development of China brings new opportunities and to China's economic operation are facing new challenges. We are in maintaining stable and rapid economic development of the crucial moment, we need to correctly estimate China's economic and social development of the favorable conditions and positive factors, fully aware of the problems facing the current challenges and, in an effort to the 16th National Party Congress has been continuously strengthen and improve macro - The achievements of control on the basis of macroeconomic continue to maintain steady and rapid development.

Economic and social development achieved better-than-expected results

Since the 16th CPC Congress, China's economic strength to a a new level. 2007, the gross domestic product over 24 trillion yuan, up 67 percent growth in 2002, the average annual growth of 10.8 percent, from sixth in the world rose to fourth place, the country's financial revenues reached 5.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.71 times; Total import and export volume reached 2.17 trillion U.S. dollars, up from sixth in the world to third. China's economic power and comprehensive national strength significantly enhanced, comprehensive development of social undertakings, people get more benefits, reform and opening up and of building a well-made significant progress, the international status and influence continues to increase.

In 2003-2007 the economic and social development, we actively deal with the complex and volatile international environment, focus on resolving macroeconomic prominent contradictions in the operation, the timely development of sound macroeconomic policies, scientific grasp the direction of macro-control, pace and intensity of And the integrated use of a variety of macro-control means and methods, pay attention to macro-control of the predictability, timeliness and effectiveness, and promote the steady and rapid economic development and avoid the big ups and downs.

Enter 2008, our country has experienced a rare history of the South disasters and low-temperature freezing rain and snow Sichuan Wenchuan Te earthquake disaster. Of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council's strong leadership and under the command of the people across the country with major natural disasters to the tenacious struggle, a major victory has greatly inspired the national spirit. At the same time, to promote the steady and rapid economic development, control prices rise too fast as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, attaches great importance to agriculture, especially grain production, comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to control money supply and excessive growth of bank credit, introduced a Series of policies and measures to accelerate structural adjustment, energy saving and emission reduction of independent innovation, and maintained steady and rapid growth continued macroeconomic situation. A quarter of gross domestic product growth of 10.6 percent over the same period last year; further improve the structure of demand, investment, consumption, export growth in demands for more balanced domestic demand, particularly consumer demand in Mong; accelerate the pace of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, economic Improve the quality of development, the continued rapid growth of fiscal revenue, energy-saving new progress in reducing emissions; continue to expand the scale of employment, income of urban and rural residents maintain a relatively rapid increase in the people's livelihood further improved. These results better than expected, the hard-earned, is deeply implement the scientific concept of development results, is to strengthen and improve macro-control results.

Comparing the current economic operation faced severe challenges

The party's 17 major scientific summing-up of a new century and new stage for China's development presented a new series of short-term characteristics. These stages in the economic characteristics of the main performance are: economic strength significantly enhanced, the formed at the same time long-term structural problems and extensive mode of growth have yet to be fundamentally change the socialist market economic system has been initially established, affecting the development of institutional mechanisms obstacles still exist ; People living on the whole a comfortable level and the widening gap between the income distribution trend is not reversed; coordinated development achieved positive results, while weak foundation of agriculture, rural development lags behind the situation has not changed, and so on. Because of these characteristics as well as the existence of the current international and domestic situation of the new situation changes, China's macro-economy in the major contradictions and problems highlighted in the following areas:

Inflationary pressures intensify. This year, the monthly consumer price index has hovered around 8 percent in the year is expected to be higher than last year. The pressure of inflation increased noticeably, the deep-seated reason is that China's economic development over the years in the way the existing problems, mainly economic growth to over-rely on the rapid growth of investment and promote exports; direct result of cost-push inflation and external factors Expansion of import. In recent years, most of the period of China's raw materials rise in upstream product prices significantly higher than the consumer price increase, the accumulated rise in the cost of raw material pressure to ease the problem of excess liquidity, the recent monetary policy direction is to control the money supply, the People's Bank of China has on several occasions Raise lending rates, the cost of capital upward trend; conserve energy resources and the protection of arable land and ecological environment in the implementation of policies, resources, environment, land and other elements of rising costs. In addition, a variety of factors make the domestic labor costs are rising faster. In the international market, as oil, grain and other important commodity prices rose rapidly, not only a vast number of developing countries have inflation, Europe and the United States and other developed countries has become increasingly evident as the inflation problems. Impact of imported inflation as the factors can not be ignored.

Financial security is facing new challenges. In recent years, China's foreign trade surplus remained at a high level, a rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, the excess liquidity situation can hardly be effectively alleviated. First half of this year, despite slower growth in trade surplus, but a lot of foreign exchange funds and accelerate the inflow of hot money in it. Appreciation of the RMB interest rate differentials and the United States is expected inflow of hot money rapidly expanding the scale of the direct cause. Released by the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves to run Renminbi base money, exacerbated by the excess liquidity situation. And persistent excess liquidity, and increased the pressure on inflation and monetary policy more difficult. The cross-border supervision of capital inflow and outflow and the increasing difficulty of the capital market and real estate market fluctuations, require our full attention to raising the level of financial risk issues.

Meidianyouyun the security of supply difficult to work. As domestic demand growth too fast and related products pricing mechanism has not been completely straighten out, as well as numerous serious the impact of natural disasters, coupled with a number of important international market prices of primary products continues to rise, this year China has become more of the coal oil Win the strained relationship between supply and demand situation. Some important products and the tense situation in parts of the more serious the short term, difficult to alleviate. This keep the economy stable operation and curb price increases brought about adverse effects.

Affected sustained agricultural output and farmers continued to increase in number of unfavorable factors. As the promotion of agricultural production has taken a strong policy measures, in 2004 China's agricultural growth rate reached 6.3 percent, reversing a century since the late 1990s, since grain output decline, slow growth in the agricultural situation and then made four consecutive years of grain production results . In recent years, agricultural growth rate continued to slow, especially this year due to serious natural disasters and the impact of agricultural production materials prices rose faster, and maintain sustained agricultural output and farmers continued to increase the difficulty of further intensify.

Maintain steady and rapid economic development of favourable conditions

At present, although the economy rather grim faced the challenge, but there are also continue to maintain steady and rapid economic development of many favorable conditions.

30 years of reform and opening up China's economic construction has achieved great achievements, laid the withstand natural disasters and external shocks of solid material foundation. This administration may force the organization and coordination of various resources, and promote stable and rapid economic development.

Since the end of 2003 the implementation of the macro-control achieved significant results. On the one hand, economic growth too much on investment and exports promote excessive growth of the situation is gradually improving, the main indicators of the national economy has been gradually running to a reasonable interval to prevent economic growth from overheating Piankuai to the other hand, the first half of 2008 Macroeconomic fundamentals remain steady and rapid development, major earthquake disaster and the international economic environment does not change the unfavorable factors for China's economic fundamentals are steady and rapid development, GDP growth rate over a year, although the slower, but still significantly Since reform and opening up higher than the average, the income of urban and rural residents continued to improve, the country's financial revenues to continue rapid growth. This shows that the overall operating efficiency of the national economy is good, the ability to use fiscal policy to promote economic development and people's livelihood further to tilt the field.

For the past four years on the basis of food production, also won this year's summer grain harvest. "The hands of a grain, and do not mind coming." Grain output to curb inflation, to resist the current world grain prices rose crisis, social stability has provided an important guarantee.

China now holds sufficient foreign exchange reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves not only in Northeast Asia than in other countries and regions more than the sum of foreign exchange reserves have also exceeded the world's seven major industrial countries (the United States, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Canada, Italy), the sum so that we have a Strong to withstand external economic and financial risk.

Reform and opening up 30 years ago, in the macro-control, we have experienced the many different characteristics of temper, has accumulated rich experience. This gives us the confidence and ability in the scientific concept of development under the guidance of difficulties to overcome the challenges, and inflation control in the affordable range, while maintaining steady and rapid economic development.

Macro-control the direction and focus

Second half of the year, work should continue in accordance with the macro-economic control total, and stabilize prices, for the structure, and promote balance requirements, in general, continue to prevent economic growth from overheating Piankuai to prevent prices from rising structural evolution of inflation is obvious, Implementation of sound fiscal policy and tight monetary policy. Meanwhile, according to the changing economic environment at home and abroad, persist in using the development and reform to solve the problems in advance, a good grasp of the tight monetary policy and the implementation of the intensity of rhythm, and increase the prudent fiscal policy for restructuring, protection of people's livelihood, earthquakes Post-disaster restoration and reconstruction support, effectively avoid big ups and downs in the economy, maintain steady and rapid economic development. At present, in particular, to prevent excessive economic growth rate slowed down and the price level remained high situation. As long as scientific grasp the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control, tempo, dynamics, adhere to scientific development, international and domestic will be able to overcome various unfavorable factors causing difficulties.

Under the current situation of the characteristics of the current macro-economic work should be the key elements: control inflation, to price, financial stability, grasping agriculture. First, the "controlling inflation" as the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. In the current level of the consumer price index is still higher circumstances, should do everything possible to curb the general level of prices rising too fast, and make efforts to control the price or can bear within the scope of protection of life and stability. The second is to "to price" as to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control of the important elements. Not long ago, the oil and electricity price adjustment is necessary, is successful. Should continue in steps and stages elements of resources and promote price reform, and further rationalize the price system, increase effective supply, curb irrational demand, promote technological progress, reducing emissions and increase energy conservation. The third is the "financial stability" as the prevention of financial risks the basic requirements. Faced with international and domestic financial environment for the complex situation, the need to further strengthen the prevention of financial risks, be prepared. Should be the correct analysis of the domestic financial sector problems, a high degree of vigilance of short-term capital flows and changes in the international exchange rate movements, fully aware of the financial crisis of unexpected features, to further strengthen financial supervision, and promote the healthy development of domestic capital markets, the real estate market to maintain stability and ensure National financial security. Fourth, the "grasping agriculture" as the basis of the overall situation of work. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. To achieve stability in agricultural production and protect the effective supply of agricultural and sideline products, regardless of when the price increases are inhibited and maintain the overall situation of economic and social stability. Agriculture should continue to earnestly implement the various policies and agricultural benefits, increase input in agriculture, to achieve higher levels of sustained agricultural production and farmers continued to increase.