From the State Administration of Foreign Exchange statistics show that on June 2 RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate was 6.9372 yuan, higher than the 100 basis points the previous day, a record since the first of this year 39 new high, at the same time, economists That the weak dollar will continue in the second half of this year, but next year the U.S. dollar possible reversal.
According to State Administration of Foreign Exchange statistics, the U.S. dollar against the RMB in the past May accumulated depreciation of nearly 1 percent, far higher than April's 0.3 percent, during the U.S. dollar against the yuan to a record six times since the lows. Before March this year, the U.S. dollar against the yuan were accumulated depreciation of about 1.57 percent, 1.17 percent and 1.22 percent.
It is reported that the U.S. current account deficit continue to expand its influence, the dollar continued devaluation in recent years, particularly since last September, the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy started from 5.25 to 2 percent of the new round of interest rate cut cycle, the dollar accelerated during the Depreciation. Statistics show that in September 2007, the U.S. dollar against the yuan has been accumulated depreciation of about 8.2 percent, which, since 2008 accumulated depreciation of about 5 percent.
Despite the substantial depreciation, but analysts believe that the depreciation of the dollar is still room for the yuan. In the company's research results showed that the year 2008 dollar real effective exchange rate has depreciated about 10 percent of the space. The company in Kazakhstan Ji-ming, chief economist of the view that the weak dollar will continue in the second half, but vigilance is worth, the dollar may be a reversal in 2009, once a strong dollar, international capital flows will be a reversal of the trend, may have Some previously attracted a large amount of international capital in emerging countries and economies in the financial system caused severe impact.
On the dollar in 2009 may be the reason for reversal, in the study believed that, on the one hand, the phenomenon of the huge U.S. trade deficit has improved and will further improve the current account deficit to the GDP and the proportion is expected to drop closer to a balanced level, Formation of dollars to support the other hand, economic fundamentals will also be a reversal of a dollar favorable conditions: expected the U.S. economy will begin to recover in 2009, and at this stage by the economic downturn affected the United States, Europe and Japan and other major developed countries In 2009 will face the economic downturn. In addition, the United States may begin in 2009 interest rate increase cycle, which is expected eurozone in 2009 will be the economic downturn may prompt the European Central Bank cut interest rates into the cycle of interest rate difference will lead to the reversal reversal in 2009 dollars.
Original article reprint please specify: Reprinted from<
http://chinasfinancial.blogspot.com/>
No comments:
Post a Comment