RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar into the "six times" two "six times" What's the difference betweenRMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar

1 asked two "six times" What's the difference between
For the current FX168, chief currency analyst Li Jun, 15 years ago, the swap scarce dollars on the foreign exchange market, the depreciation of the renminbi moving rapidly the situation is still Lilizaimu, Bank of Communications is working at the time he was responsible for U.S. dollars foreign exchange settlement and sales business, Probably in late 1992 and early 1993 when the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate the way to the market, six yuan in the Dangkou almost without stop,
Instant perforation of the seven yuan barrier.

15 have passed, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar yesterday, once again returned to the "six times." Li Jun said that it is now今非昔比, China's comprehensive national strength, macro-economic and financial environment than 15 years ago with earth-shaking changes.

Recalling China's foreign exchange system History shows that in January 1, 1994 China announced the cancellation of dual exchange rate system, there are the official exchange rate and the swap market exchange rate at the same time both the exchange rate pricing system, but at the time the shortage of foreign exchange, foreign exchange resources in Demand and allocation between the providers "wrong", the official premium "price without the city."
At the same time, from around 1988 began gradually built up foreign exchange swap is unusually prosperity. Before and after 1993, the domestic economy overheating, there inflation, the surge in demand for imports, "is very scarce foreign exchange things, the market will think that the substantial depreciation of the renminbi, would result in a substantial appreciation of the Exchange, in the panic buying (Exchange)." Bank of Communications Lian-ping, chief economist recalled that time the Stock Market, also has a profound impression.

15, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar once again perform a "break 7", entered the "six times." But apart from the depreciation of the process is the last time, Now is the appreciation of the basic differences, the two "six times" There are many factors can not compare the background.

15 years ago, as a measure of a country's comprehensive national strength of key economic indicators, China's foreign exchange reserves, about 20 billion U.S. dollars; Today, China's foreign exchange reserves have more than 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars over 15 years ago, an increase of 70 times. 15 years ago, the domestic financial order more chaos, massive violations of bank credit market funds; Today, China's financial market after years of construction, are more open attitude to integration into the global market, multi-level construction of the market system with remarkable results.

"Two times'6 'is clearly not the same day and language." Li Jun, the current RMB exchange rate did not reflect their real value, "cracking 7" will continue to rise.

2 asked whether it will slow down the pace of appreciation

For the future trend of the renminbi issue, Lehman, UBS, Bank of America and many other investment bank economists believe that since the first quarter of this year, 4 percent appreciation of the renminbi, although they also expected the appreciation of the yuan will continue, but not to the past Within the next few months as the rate of appreciation of the renminbi's future reference. Under the influence of multiple factors, the yuan's appreciation against the dollar rate will slow.

The revaluation of the renminbi in the first quarter of about 4% of the problem, Bank of America Greater China economic research and strategy director Wang Tao believes that this partly due to the depreciation of the dollar-driven, the yuan on the project has not been effective in a more substantial revaluation. Lehman Brothers chief economist of China Sun Mingchun believes that the domestic price increase last year to promote the key factor is the raw material, food and other global markets soaring prices of raw materials caused by rising import prices, and currency appreciation will help curb domestic product imports Prices.

For the future trend of the yuan, said Sun Mingchun, with the Government's anti-inflation focus from work to promote employment, the pace of appreciation should slow down significantly in the second half. "The Government's policy focus of the second half may soon shift from the anti-inflation problem of unemployment, pay more attention to economic growth rather than inflation, will slow down the pace of currency appreciation."

Wang Tao is also expected that once the inflationary pressure makes a clear slowdown in export data or weakened, the yuan against the U.S. dollar will weaken the speed of adjustment. He predicted that by the end of June this year, the RMB exchange rate will break the 6.8, the end of the year will rise to 6.65.

In exchange rate policy, the Sun Mingchun, the RMB exchange rate management in the People's Bank of China will pay more attention to the effective exchange rate and expectations for a U.S. in the second half of the year compared with other major currencies (such as euro, sterling and yen) appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar's appreciation pace May not be as fast as the first quarter.

UBS chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region Anderson pointed out that there are multiple factors, makes the appreciation of the renminbi can not be expected to last four months about the appreciation of the situation as a reference. First, the renminbi is not on all the major currencies appreciate, but the appreciation of the dollar; Second, the "hot money" the possibility of returning; Third, the United States and the global economy will further slow-down in the first half of this year, which will help the economy Of exports. Once this happens, the appreciation of the RMB power would decline.

3 asked whether the appreciation of anti-inflationary pressure

Since the central bank in last year's third quarter monetary policy report for the first time raised interest rates and exchange rates to strengthen coordination and cooperation to ease inflationary pressures, the role of exchange rate tools on the market for more attention to. With yesterday's exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar above the first seven yuan juncture, the road in the rapid appreciation of the RMB is the way to the high inflation pressure to play a greater role once again be concerned about.
In the third quarter last year, the central bank's monetary policy implementation in the report, interest rates and exchange rates to strengthen the coordination role, to curb inflationary pressure, the RMB exchange rate performance was positive, to bring rapid appreciation of the potential market many accidents. "In order to curb inflation pressures, in fact the central bank has pushed the exchange rate tools to the first line." CASS Institute of Finance, China's economic evaluation of Liu Yu-hui, director of the Center said.

Two sessions held in March this year, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan made it clear that from an analytical point of view, the proper appreciation of the yuan, or slightly faster, the Chinese currency will help curb inflationary pressures. But he also pointed out that curbing inflation pressures will not become the market exchange rate mechanism reform, or changes in the main exchange rate fluctuations.

However, with domestic and international economic environment of constant change, use the exchange rate tools to ease the inflationary pressure should also be constantly adjusted. Liu Yu-hui stressed that the current external environment is not relaxed, the Government's control ideas, considerations will be subtle changes. He believes that the Government may prevent over-tightening policies have a negative impact on the economy, but on the nature of the appreciation of the exchange rate will play a role in tightening, in such circumstances, the next revaluation of the RMB rate will definitely not be more than one quarter , But relatively slow.

Senior Manager of the Research Department of China Construction Bank, Zhao Qingming not agree to the appreciation of the renminbi to alleviate inflationary pressures views. He said that in theory, this view is to set up, but it needs a relatively harsh existence of the premise. In China's current circumstances, the renminbi to the formation of a unilateral appreciation of the market is expected to attract a lot of capital inflows, resulting in Waihuizhankuan increase the liquidity surplus, eventually formed the appreciation of the excess liquidity to strengthen the cycle, There is no pressure to help curb inflation. In his view, is the key to solve the problem by dividing the expected way, making money is no longer unilateral revaluation of the yuan have imagined, cut off the inflow of hot money, thereby reducing Waihuizhankuan due to the passive monetary base running, the final start from the currency Ease inflationary pressure. (Qinyuan-na-Beibei)