Zhang: China's high growth has not yet entered the era of high inflation

2008年05月28日 07:17:35 　Source: China Securities News
The first four months of this year CPI gain of 8.2 percent, China's economy has entered a "high growth, high inflation" era, and will run in the direction of what «Written Discussion on this recent series of forms to invite some experts talk about their domestic point of view .

The author believes that China's future will not enter the high-growth, high inflation era. Because of China's actual economic growth rate did not exceed the potential rate of economic growth, so there will be no high growth and high inflation both situations. At the same time, China's future cost of the product will not be sustained, rapid increase trend. In the long run, international commodity prices will continue rising. Increase in costs and more intense competition in the market environment, enterprises should carry out more of its own comprehensive development plan, it is precisely China's industrial structure optimization, transformation of the mode of economic development of the tremendous momentum.

First, China's actual economic growth rate below the potential rate of economic growth

From the economic growth theory and practice, high growth and high inflation both phenomena, can only occur in the actual economic growth rate higher than the potential economic growth rate of circumstances, is the level of economic growth to support economic growth over the conditions of performance. In real economic growth below potential economic growth under conditions of high growth is not possible with both the phenomenon of high inflation.

China's current economic growth rate lower than the actual potential rate of economic growth. To this conclusion, we need to do some discussion. China's potential for economic growth, understanding of different, from 8 percent to 9 percent and more than 10 percent. Mainly due to the potential economic growth rate is changing, decided to economic growth potential of the various factors are changing. Is to determine the potential supply of the main elements, including capital, technology, labor, and other. From these elements conditions, I think the potential of China's current economic growth rate should be at least 12 percent. This is because, in 2007 China's economic growth rate reached 11.9 percent, but there are still large amounts of funds remaining (bank deposit a large number of poor, large foreign exchange reserves, etc.), labor surplus (not full employment is still the most prominent one of the social problems), technology Supply potential, if taking into account the foreign technology and the formation of independent innovation of China's major core technology supply conditions, it should be said that great. Taking all these potential supply situation can be considered China's potential economic growth rate of at least 12 percent.

Performance in this potential economic growth rate above the level in accordance with another important is that when economic growth rate reached 11.9 percent of the time, there are still a lot of surplus (2007 trade surplus reached more than 2,600 billion U.S. dollars), from the perspective of national accounts This is total social investment of less than total social savings result, the actual economic growth rate is lower than the potential economic growth rate for another proof.

Of course, the potential of China's current economic growth also requires a detailed and profound analysis of this research are under way, but decided to potential economic growth rate for the level of various factors, it that our country's real economic growth rate is Below the potential rate of economic growth. The reason is mainly a new round of faster economic growth has always been bound by the effective macro-control, not rapid and sustained warming, its deep background, it is bound by the resources and the environment.

The discussion above shows that China's potential economic growth rate higher level, the actual economic growth rate did not exceed the potential rate of economic growth, so there will be no high growth and high inflation both situations.
Second, the cost-push to conduct a comprehensive analysis

Never strict interpretation of high prices or can be called high inflation. In fact discussed in the economics of inflation, currency is increasing demand from expanding further price increases caused the integrity of the process, due to lead to price increases, may also be the supply-side reasons, the price will rise collectively referred to as inflation is not Strict. The price rose from the medium and long-term, major decisions on the cost of the changes. Because of cost if not reasonable compensation, in the medium to long-term course of development, a product of the production will decline, the supply will be reduced, if other products can not be replaced, the demand for this product will be pulling its prices . This is also the value of (socially necessary labor time) decided that the price of one of the specific performance.

The current increase in the cost of promoting indeed many factors, including the increase in wage costs, the increase in raw material costs (including both domestic and international), the increase in cost, resources and environment, and so on. The increased costs will inevitably promote the level of prices. Is to be noted that the cost to conduct a comprehensive analysis must change. To see an increase in the cost factor, it is also necessary to reduce the costs of the factors taken into full consideration. Front analysis showed that, when the actual rate of economic growth below potential economic growth rate, the oversupply the market will show a pattern of widespread and intense competition, it is also practical in recent years the majority of our products in domestic and overseas markets face a basic situation . The competition led to a class of important events that enterprises in the cost of management and technological innovation efforts in two areas. Because in the competition to occupy a favorable position, the first to make products with good price competitive edge, the second to make products with better quality, performance, competitive advantage. To achieve this goal, we must strive to reduce costs, including the strengthening of cost management, efforts to reduce consumption and investment, eliminate Paomaodilou, raising labor productivity, and so on. These efforts will lead to lower cost factors of development, the competition led to lower the cost factors, we absolutely can not be underestimated.

After 1995, with the domestic market supply and demand changes, clothing, textile, home appliances, and other labor-intensive industries continue to lower prices. After 2001, is facing a raw material costs continue to increase the impact, but the trend of lower prices to maintain, an important reason is that competition led to lower the cost of these factors support the sustained development of industry. It should be noted that China's economic development mode or extensive features outstanding, compared with the developed countries, China's investment in lower and lower consumption potential is still very great; On the other hand, cheap labor, China's labor-substitute industries to capital-and technology The phenomenon is still relatively common, the potential for increased labor productivity, capital and technology substitution of the potential labour force is also very large. Through competition, give full play to such potential, it will bring enormous cost reduction effects.

Of course, also noted that the agricultural production, reduce the cost of the potential of a relatively small. However, agricultural production to specialization, industrialization, mechanization, and other aspects of development, but also contains a certain amount of the potential of raising labor productivity, contains a certain amount of cost reduction potential. At the same time, from agriculture and industry, the service sector and other non-agricultural labor productivity compare the differences of view, agriculture is a weak industry, but also very rigid demand, the product can not be replaced. So the costs of agricultural production must be considered sufficient compensation. So from a longer period, the prices of agricultural products will show a moderate increase continued the trend.

Based on the above analysis, in the promotion of increased costs and lead to lower costs of the two types of factors working together, the future cost of our products will not be sustained, rapid and improve the situation, would not push prices to continue to grow.

Third, long-term perspective, international commodity prices will not continue rising

To fully understand the role of prices. On the one hand will stimulate price increases related to the supply increase, and the international supply of primary products increased the potential for enormous, the price adjustment will be released under the other price increases will curb the demand for related products, and promote technological progress and product Alternative. The role of these factors together, the prices can not continue rising.

In addition, China's food supply and demand can be based on domestic balance, the basic livelihood of goods subject to little effect on the international market, which is the basis of price stability.

Comprehensive analysis, I think my future will not enter the high-growth, high inflation era. However, it should be noted that, since many domestic and international factors, the business environment will become more severe, the increased cost and more intense competition in the market environment, enterprises should carry out more of its own comprehensive development plan, invest more Effort. This is precisely the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China, the transformation of the mode of economic development of the tremendous momentum. (Zhang)